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The ClimArc Archives

Now moved to Brindabella Archives at this site



Not long ago, like many others, I thought it was likely that the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by burning fossil fuels was building up in the Earth's atmosphere and causing the increased global temperatures experienced over the last century. Being a scientist, trained to base my views on data rather than the opinions of others, I started to look deeper. The more I looked, the less certain I became.

The only relevant data we have is the small rise in temperatures the Earth has experienced over the last two centuries – about 1 to 2 Cº – and rising CO2 levels. I eventually came to the conclusion that the temperature increase was just the ending of The Little Ice Age – an historical fact – and we were in what the historians have called a ‘climate optima’ like the previous Medieval, Roman, and Minoan warm periods when humans, and Life on Earth generally, thrived.

Looking at the Earth's carbon cycle, it became obvious that the mere 1% we have added with our total industrial era emissions was not upsetting the carbon cycle and that other factors were determining atmospheric CO2 levels.

I was also surprised to realise how little public discussion and serious debate this issue had received, given the extreme measures that were being proposed. We were being told by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that we had to ‘decarbonise’ our energy use – a massively costly act of deliberate self-harm if not justifiable. There are two links in the chain of logic that supported this conclusion. The first was that our industrial CO2 emissions were the primary cause of increasing atmospheric CO2. The second link was that the amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere controlled surface temperatures.

I am now convinced that the IPCC is wrong on both counts, and that the counter-measures the UN have pushed on us are ill-considered and failing. Those countries that have pursued this course are now facing industrially crippling energy prices and supply uncertainty. We need to act quickly to prevent further damage.

My latest research is summarised in the article Radiative Delay in Context. Its abstract reads:

It is said that radiative gasses (RGs, or greenhouse gasses) trap heat radiated from the Earth's surface causing it’s temperature to rise by 33 K above the theoretical temperature with no atmosphere. The word ‘trap’ is misleading. RGs delay the radiative transmission of heat from surface to space.
I estimate this delay and conclude that its average impact on atmospheric temperatures, the Radiative Delay Effect (RDE), is in the order of 0.15 [0.1 to 1] K. This result is then placed in the broader context of atmospheric thermodynamics where it complements recent work on the air-surface interaction. The combination leaves no significant role for carbon dioxide.

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The IPCC and the Carbon Cycle

We are told by the IPCC that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are causing atmospheric CO2 levels to rise and that these are causing global warming. Of the two links in this chain of reasoning this article addresses the first.

I show that the IPCC view of the carbon cycle is fundamentally flawed in many ways, and is not supportable at any meaningful level of confidence. This is not esoteric science to be left to specialists or ‘great minds’. Any numerate person who cares to look and think can understand the insignificance of our total industrial era CO2 emissions at less than 1% of the carbon cycle and our annual emissions at just 5% of the air-sea fluxes.

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./dai/Energy&Atmosphere (1y 39w 6d ago, 5 files)
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./dai/Energy&Atmosphere/-summary.html ( 18w 6d ago, size: 585 bytes)

This article looks at the energy dynamics of the Earth's atmosphere. Since the role of radiative gasses has become a political issue that is undermining the stability of industrial economies and denying the many benefits of cheap and reliable energy to billions of people, the precise nature of the energy dynamics of our atmosphere has become a trillion dollar question.

It shows a new derivation for the adiabatic temperature lapse rate in the atmosphere.
It also points to a possible explanation for why the Earth's water thermostat cuts in so suddenly at 30 Cº.

./dai/Energy&Atmosphere/Energy&Atmosphere.pdf (1y 39w 6d ago, size: 798684 bytes)
./dai/IPCC-CO2 (1y 41w , 5 files)
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The IPCC and the Carbon Cycle

We are told by the IPCC that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are causing atmospheric CO2 levels to rise and that these are causing global warming. Of the two links in this chain of reasoning this article addresses the first.

I show that the IPCC view of the carbon cycle is fundamentally flawed in many ways, and is not supportable at any meaningful level of confidence. This is not esoteric science to be left to specialists or ‘great minds’. Any numerate person who cares to look and think can understand the insignificance of our total industrial era CO2 emissions at less than 1% of the carbon cycle and our annual emissions at just 5% of the air-sea fluxes.

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./dai/IPCC-CO2/IPCC-CO2.pdf (1y 41w , size: 888177 bytes)
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./dai/Other/Climate PP/-comments.html (2y 18w 3d ago, size: 306 bytes)
./dai/Other/Climate PP/-summary.html (2y 18w 4d ago, size: 104 bytes)

This is an early overview article looking at things and events that have influenced my views on climate.

./dai/Other/Climate PP/Climate - A Personal Perspective.html (2y 16w 1d ago, size: 78033 bytes)
./dai/Other/Climate PP/Climate-PP.pdf (3y 41w 4d ago, size: 636413 bytes)
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./dai/Other/Natural Cycles (2y 16w , 4 files)
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Plot from the southern Sea Surface Temperature modelling.
See the SST images archive in the images branch. A description of this project is forthcoming.

./dai/Other/Natural Cycles/Natural Cycles.html (2y 16w 2d ago, size: 6850 bytes)
./dai/Other/Natural Cycles/Natural Cycles.pdf (2y 18w 2d ago, size: 116959 bytes)
./dai/Other/Sea Surface Temperature (1y 10w 1d ago, 9 files)
./dai/Other/Sea Surface Temperature/-Notes (2y 16w , 0 files)
./dai/Other/Sea Surface Temperature/-summary.html (2y 18w 2d ago, size: 109 bytes)

Forthcoming article: a technical description of the SST modelling discussed in the article Natural Cycles.

./dai/Other/Sea Surface Temperature/model plots (2y 15w 6d ago, 6 files)
./dai/Other/Sea Surface Temperature/model plots/SST-model.gif (4y 6w 5d ago, size: 31354 bytes)
./dai/Other/Sea Surface Temperature/model plots/SignalR150125.131703_1S2.gif (3y 51w 4d ago, size: 23758 bytes)
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This is a personal view of the political nature of the CO2 scare from an environmentalist who has watched on in dismay at the extreme politicisation of the environment. I watched the takeover of the environment movement since the 1970s by the extreme left acting with motives that have nothing to do with reducing our environmental impact.
Moving forward we see the actions of the totalitarian left in the United Nations and associated NGOs forming the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and how this has perverted the already corrupted nexus between science and public policy.

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./dai/Politics/ClimatePolitics.pdf (2y 19w , size: 115087 bytes)
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Note by: dai: Sunday 17th of December 2017 01:16 PM, EAT

A Note to Critics

I welcome any comments that help to improve, or disprove, my results. Comments can be added here with the "Post a Comment" option in the upper right function panel. They can be anonymous. In scientific debate it is content that matters, not identity.

Comments of the form, "you haven't included ..." should be accompanied by some reasoned justification of significance and some attempt at quantification. Claims that the effects discussed here are already included in IPCC related climate models should be accompanied by specific references to public code (i.e. line numbers) and associated documentation.

The effort I expend in replying to comments will depend on my assessment of the effort reflected in the comment.

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