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Untitled Page

The ClimArc Archives

Now moved to Brindabella Archives at this site



Not long ago, like many others, I thought it was likely that the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by burning fossil fuels was building up in the Earth's atmosphere and causing the increased global temperatures experienced over the last century. Being a scientist, trained to base my views on data rather than the opinions of others, I started to look deeper. The more I looked, the less certain I became.

The only relevant data we have is the small rise in temperatures the Earth has experienced over the last two centuries – about 1 to 2 Cº – and rising CO2 levels. I eventually came to the conclusion that the temperature increase was just the ending of The Little Ice Age – an historical fact – and we were in what the historians have called a ‘climate optima’ like the previous Medieval, Roman, and Minoan warm periods when humans, and Life on Earth generally, thrived.

Looking at the Earth's carbon cycle, it became obvious that the mere 1% we have added with our total industrial era emissions was not upsetting the carbon cycle and that other factors were determining atmospheric CO2 levels.

I was also surprised to realise how little public discussion and serious debate this issue had received, given the extreme measures that were being proposed. We were being told by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that we had to ‘decarbonise’ our energy use – a massively costly act of deliberate self-harm if not justifiable. There are two links in the chain of logic that supported this conclusion. The first was that our industrial CO2 emissions were the primary cause of increasing atmospheric CO2. The second link was that the amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere controlled surface temperatures.

I am now convinced that the IPCC is wrong on both counts, and that the counter-measures the UN have pushed on us are ill-considered and failing. Those countries that have pursued this course are now facing industrially crippling energy prices and supply uncertainty. We need to act quickly to prevent further damage.

My latest research is summarised in the article Radiative Delay in Context. Its abstract reads:

It is said that radiative gasses (RGs, or greenhouse gasses) trap heat radiated from the Earth's surface causing it’s temperature to rise by 33 K above the theoretical temperature with no atmosphere. The word ‘trap’ is misleading. RGs delay the radiative transmission of heat from surface to space.
I estimate this delay and conclude that its average impact on atmospheric temperatures, the Radiative Delay Effect (RDE), is in the order of 0.15 [0.1 to 1] K. This result is then placed in the broader context of atmospheric thermodynamics where it complements recent work on the air-surface interaction. The combination leaves no significant role for carbon dioxide.

./Academic Publications.html (1y 14w 1d ago, size: 2611 bytes)
./Hall of Infamy.html (1y 51w 5d ago, size: 8788 bytes)
./OCM ( 40w 4d ago, 5 files)
./OCM/OCM_170402.html (1y 5w 5d ago, size: 134066 bytes)
./OCM/OCMdemo.zip ( 40w 4d ago, size: 158555 bytes)
./OCM/plots (1y 8w 3d ago, 2 files)
./OCM/plots/OCM-AirPlot-DsTLS.gif (1y 8w 4d ago, size: 11011 bytes)
./OCM/plots/OCM-AirPlot-TSL.gif (1y 8w 4d ago, size: 9195 bytes)
./dai ( 2d ago, 72 files)
./dai/-Notes (1y 51w 3d ago, 0 files)
./dai/-comments.html (2y 1w 5d ago, size: 528 bytes)
./dai/-summary.html ( 2w 2d ago, size: 3817 bytes)

Untitled Page

The ClimArc Archives

Now moved to Brindabella Archives at this site



Not long ago, like many others, I thought it was likely that the carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by burning fossil fuels was building up in the Earth's atmosphere and causing the increased global temperatures experienced over the last century. Being a scientist, trained to base my views on data rather than the opinions of others, I started to look deeper. The more I looked, the less certain I became.

The only relevant data we have is the small rise in temperatures the Earth has experienced over the last two centuries – about 1 to 2 Cº – and rising CO2 levels. I eventually came to the conclusion that the temperature increase was just the ending of The Little Ice Age – an historical fact – and we were in what the historians have called a ‘climate optima’ like the previous Medieval, Roman, and Minoan warm periods when humans, and Life on Earth generally, thrived.

Looking at the Earth's carbon cycle, it became obvious that the mere 1% we have added with our total industrial era emissions was not upsetting the carbon cycle and that other factors were determining atmospheric CO2 levels.

I was also surprised to realise how little public discussion and serious debate this issue had received, given the extreme measures that were being proposed. We were being told by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that we had to ‘decarbonise’ our energy use – a massively costly act of deliberate self-harm if not justifiable. There are two links in the chain of logic that supported this conclusion. The first was that our industrial CO2 emissions were the primary cause of increasing atmospheric CO2. The second link was that the amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere controlled surface temperatures.

I am now convinced that the IPCC is wrong on both counts, and that the counter-measures the UN have pushed on us are ill-considered and failing. Those countries that have pursued this course are now facing industrially crippling energy prices and supply uncertainty. We need to act quickly to prevent further damage.

My latest research is summarised in the article Radiative Delay in Context. Its abstract reads:

It is said that radiative gasses (RGs, or greenhouse gasses) trap heat radiated from the Earth's surface causing it’s temperature to rise by 33 K above the theoretical temperature with no atmosphere. The word ‘trap’ is misleading. RGs delay the radiative transmission of heat from surface to space.
I estimate this delay and conclude that its average impact on atmospheric temperatures, the Radiative Delay Effect (RDE), is in the order of 0.15 [0.1 to 1] K. This result is then placed in the broader context of atmospheric thermodynamics where it complements recent work on the air-surface interaction. The combination leaves no significant role for carbon dioxide.

./dai/Diurnal-Smoothing-Effect.pdf ( 1w 4d ago, size: 238052 bytes)
./dai/Energy&Atmosphere (1y 23w 2d ago, 5 files)
./dai/Energy&Atmosphere/-Notes (1y 51w 3d ago, 1 files)
./dai/Energy&Atmosphere/-Notes/note by dai-20160917-191651.html (2y 1w 1d ago, size: 369 bytes)
./dai/Energy&Atmosphere/-comments.html (2y 1w 6d ago, size: 312 bytes)
./dai/Energy&Atmosphere/-summary.html ( 2w 2d ago, size: 585 bytes)

This article looks at the energy dynamics of the Earth's atmosphere. Since the role of radiative gasses has become a political issue that is undermining the stability of industrial economies and denying the many benefits of cheap and reliable energy to billions of people, the precise nature of the energy dynamics of our atmosphere has become a trillion dollar question.

It shows a new derivation for the adiabatic temperature lapse rate in the atmosphere.
It also points to a possible explanation for why the Earth's water thermostat cuts in so suddenly at 30 Cº.

./dai/Energy&Atmosphere/Energy&Atmosphere.pdf (1y 23w 2d ago, size: 798684 bytes)
./dai/IPCC-CO2 (1y 24w 3d ago, 5 files)
./dai/IPCC-CO2/-Notes (1y 51w 3d ago, 0 files)
./dai/IPCC-CO2/-comments.html (2y 1w 6d ago, size: 209 bytes)
./dai/IPCC-CO2/-summary.html ( 2w 2d ago, size: 1224 bytes)



The IPCC and the Carbon Cycle

We are told by the IPCC that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are causing atmospheric CO2 levels to rise and that these are causing global warming. Of the two links in this chain of reasoning this article addresses the first.

I show that the IPCC view of the carbon cycle is fundamentally flawed in many ways, and is not supportable at any meaningful level of confidence. This is not esoteric science to be left to specialists or ‘great minds’. Any numerate person who cares to look and think can understand the insignificance of our total industrial era CO2 emissions at less than 1% of the carbon cycle and our annual emissions at just 5% of the air-sea fluxes.

./dai/IPCC-CO2/IPCC-CO2.html (1y 51w 6d ago, size: 45644 bytes)
./dai/IPCC-CO2/IPCC-CO2.pdf (1y 24w 3d ago, size: 888177 bytes)
./dai/Other articles ( 47w 6d ago, 36 files)
./dai/Other articles/Climate PP (1y 51w 3d ago, 6 files)
./dai/Other articles/Climate PP/-Notes (1y 51w 3d ago, 1 files)
./dai/Other articles/Climate PP/-Notes/note by dai-20160917-191552.html (2y 1w 1d ago, size: 351 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Climate PP/-comments.html (2y 1w 6d ago, size: 306 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Climate PP/-summary.html (2y 2w , size: 104 bytes)

This is an early overview article looking at things and events that have influenced my views on climate.

./dai/Other articles/Climate PP/Climate - A Personal Perspective.html (1y 51w 4d ago, size: 78033 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Climate PP/Climate-PP.pdf (3y 25w , size: 636413 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/ClimateTruth&Certainty ( 47w 6d ago, 2 files)
./dai/Other articles/ClimateTruth&Certainty/ClimateTruth&Certainty.html (1y 51w 6d ago, size: 17007 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/ClimateTruth&Certainty/ClimateTruthAndCertainty.pdf (2y 5d ago, size: 131955 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Fusion (1y 51w 3d ago, 2 files)
./dai/Other articles/Fusion/Fusion-FF.html (1y 51w 6d ago, size: 11163 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Fusion/Fusion-FiascoOrFinesse.pdf (4y 42w 2d ago, size: 76430 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Lapse Rates (1y 26w 1d ago, 4 files)
./dai/Other articles/Lapse Rates/-Notes (1y 51w 3d ago, 1 files)
./dai/Other articles/Lapse Rates/-Notes/note by dai-20160917-192819.html (2y 1w 1d ago, size: 352 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Lapse Rates/Lapse Rates.html (1y 51w 6d ago, size: 11534 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Lapse Rates/Lapse_Rates.pdf (2y 1w 5d ago, size: 159006 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Natural Cycles (1y 51w 3d ago, 4 files)
./dai/Other articles/Natural Cycles/-Notes (1y 51w 3d ago, 0 files)
./dai/Other articles/Natural Cycles/-summary.html (2y 1w 1d ago, size: 157 bytes)

Plot from the southern Sea Surface Temperature modelling.
See the SST images archive in the images branch. A description of this project is forthcoming.

./dai/Other articles/Natural Cycles/Natural Cycles.html (1y 51w 5d ago, size: 6850 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Natural Cycles/Natural Cycles.pdf (2y 1w 5d ago, size: 116959 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Sea Surface Temperature ( 45w 4d ago, 9 files)
./dai/Other articles/Sea Surface Temperature/-Notes (1y 51w 3d ago, 0 files)
./dai/Other articles/Sea Surface Temperature/-summary.html (2y 1w 5d ago, size: 109 bytes)

Forthcoming article: a technical description of the SST modelling discussed in the article Natural Cycles.

./dai/Other articles/Sea Surface Temperature/model plots (1y 51w 1d ago, 6 files)
./dai/Other articles/Sea Surface Temperature/model plots/SST-model.gif (3y 42w 1d ago, size: 31354 bytes)
./dai/Other articles/Sea Surface Temperature/model plots/SignalR150125.131703_1S2.gif (3y 35w , size: 23758 bytes)
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./dai/Other articles/Soils (1y 51w 3d ago, 2 files)
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./dai/Other articles/Soils/Soils.pdf (2y 5d ago, size: 144418 bytes)
./dai/Politics (1y 24w , 6 files)
./dai/Politics/-Notes (1y 51w 3d ago, 1 files)
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./dai/Politics/-comments.html (2y 1w 6d ago, size: 209 bytes)
./dai/Politics/-summary.html (2y 2w , size: 601 bytes)

This is a personal view of the political nature of the CO2 scare from an environmentalist who has watched on in dismay at the extreme politicisation of the environment. I watched the takeover of the environment movement since the 1970s by the extreme left acting with motives that have nothing to do with reducing our environmental impact.
Moving forward we see the actions of the totalitarian left in the United Nations and associated NGOs forming the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and how this has perverted the already corrupted nexus between science and public policy.

./dai/Politics/ClimatePolitics.html (1y 51w 6d ago, size: 17656 bytes)
./dai/Politics/ClimatePolitics.pdf (2y 2w 3d ago, size: 115087 bytes)
./dai/RadiativeDelay ( 3w 5d ago, 10 files)
./dai/RadiativeDelay/-Notes ( 40w , 4 files)
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./dai/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelay170828.pdf (1y 3w 6d ago, size: 209259 bytes)
./dai/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelay170828.xlsx (1y 3w 6d ago, size: 112865 bytes)
./dai/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelayInContext170828.pdf (1y 3w 6d ago, size: 304598 bytes)
./dai/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelayInContext180818.pdf ( 5w 1d ago, size: 244143 bytes)
./dai/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelayUpdates.html ( 46w 2d ago, size: 676 bytes)
./dai/molecular-RD.mov ( 2d ago, size: 29157171 bytes)
./imagesRD ( 2d ago, 4 files)
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