Brindabella Archives

Do not be led by others,
awaken your own mind,
amass your own experience,
and decide for yourself your own path.
The Atharva Veda

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Brindabella Archives Summary The Brindabella Archives are nonfiction writings on Science, Technology, and Society.

./Comments (1y 17w 6d ago, 0 files)
./Current (1y 17w 6d ago, 0 files)
./Dai (1y 13w 3d ago, 13 files)
./Dai/-Notes (1y 17w 6d ago, 0 files)
./Dai/-comments.html (1y 18w , size: 216 bytes)
./Dai/-summary.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 402 bytes)

Personal odds and ends from past sites.

./Dai/photos (1y 13w 4d ago, 9 files)
./Dai/photos/Black Snake.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 3954 bytes)
./Dai/photos/Digging Sticks.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 1382 bytes)
./Dai/photos/Fin the Dog.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 344 bytes)
./Dai/photos/Fin with ball.html (1y 11w , size: 701 bytes)
./Dai/photos/Marsupial.html (1y 11w , size: 371 bytes)
./Dai/photos/Sharing Territory.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 3728 bytes)
./Dai/photos/Sullivans Creek.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 1018 bytes)
./Dai/photos/The Itch.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 390 bytes)
./Dai/photos/Young Possom.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 2079 bytes)
./OCM (1y 14w 2d ago, 6 files)
./OCM/-summary.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 1059 bytes)

Untitled Page The Open Climate Modeller (OCM) is an interactive Javascript visualisation package for exploring the Earth's surface-atmosphere energy dynamics.
Select the OCM.html file to run it now, or download the file.
Unzip it then open in a local browser. Local use recommended for Javascript programmers only. Check code safety for yourself.

./OCM/OCM_170402.html (1y 31w 4d ago, size: 134066 bytes)
./OCM/ (1y 14w 3d ago, size: 158555 bytes)
./OCM/plots (1y 14w 2d ago, 2 files)
./OCM/plots/OCM-AirPlot-DsTLS.gif ( 34w 5d ago, size: 13337 bytes)
./OCM/plots/OCM-AirPlot-TSL.gif (1y 34w 2d ago, size: 9195 bytes)
./Science ( 47w 5d ago, 70 files)
./Science/Climate ( 27w 2d ago, 59 files)
./Science/Climate/Atmosphere (1y 17w 6d ago, 6 files)
./Science/Climate/Atmosphere/-Notes (1y 11w , 0 files)
./Science/Climate/Atmosphere/-comments.html (2y 27w 4d ago, size: 312 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Atmosphere/-summary.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 616 bytes)

This article, Energy and Atmosphere, looks at the energy dynamics of the Earth's atmosphere. Since the role of radiative gasses has become a political issue that is undermining the stability of industrial economies and denying the many benefits of cheap and reliable energy to billions of people, the precise nature of the energy dynamics of our atmosphere has become a trillion dollar question.

It shows a new derivation for the adiabatic temperature lapse rate in the atmosphere.
It also points to a possible explanation for why the Earth's water thermostat cuts in so suddenly at 30 Cº.

./Science/Climate/Atmosphere/Energy&Atmosphere.html (1y 11w , size: 33664 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Atmosphere/Energy&Atmosphere.pdf (2y 28w 3d ago, size: 529340 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Atmosphere/Lapse Rates.html (1y 11w , size: 11383 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Climate PP (1y 17w 6d ago, 5 files)
./Science/Climate/Climate PP/-Notes (1y 11w , 0 files)
./Science/Climate/Climate PP/-comments.html (2y 27w 4d ago, size: 306 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Climate PP/-summary.html (1y 11w , size: 141 bytes)

Climate – A Personal Perspective is an early overview article looking at things and events that have influenced my views on climate.

./Science/Climate/Climate PP/Climate - A Personal Perspective.html (2y 11w 4d ago, size: 78040 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Climate PP/Climate-PP.pdf (3y 50w 5d ago, size: 636413 bytes)
./Science/Climate/ClimateTruth&Certainty (1y 11w , 2 files)
./Science/Climate/ClimateTruth&Certainty/Truth&Certainty.html (2y 25w 4d ago, size: 17007 bytes)
./Science/Climate/ClimateTruth&Certainty/TruthAndCertainty.pdf (2y 26w 3d ago, size: 131955 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Diurnal-Smoothing-Effect.pdf ( 27w 2d ago, size: 238052 bytes)
./Science/Climate/HallOfInfamy.pdf (1y 51w 6d ago, size: 73439 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Hall of Infamy.html (1y 51w 6d ago, size: 8786 bytes)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2 (1y 17w 6d ago, 5 files)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/-Notes (1y 17w 6d ago, 0 files)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/-comments.html (2y 27w 4d ago, size: 209 bytes)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/-summary.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 1217 bytes)

 The IPCC and the Carbon Cycle
We are told by the IPCC that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are causing atmospheric CO2 levels to rise and that these are causing global warming. Of the two links in this chain of reasoning this article addresses the first.

I show that the IPCC view of the carbon cycle is fundamentally flawed in many ways, and is not supportable at any meaningful level of confidence. This is not esoteric science to be left to specialists or ‘great minds’. Any numerate person who cares to look and think can understand the insignificance of our total industrial era CO2 emissions at less than 1% of the carbon cycle and our annual emissions at just 5% of the air-sea fluxes.

./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/IPCC-CO2.html (2y 16w 6d ago, size: 45665 bytes)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/IPCC-CO2.pdf (2y 25w 4d ago, size: 956187 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Lapse Rates (1y 17w 6d ago, 6 files)
./Science/Climate/Lapse Rates/-Notes (1y 11w , 0 files)
./Science/Climate/Lapse Rates/Lapse Rates.html (2y 25w 4d ago, size: 11534 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Lapse Rates/Lapse Rates.pdf (2y 27w 3d ago, size: 159006 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Lapse Rates/Lapse Rates.rtfd (1y 17w 6d ago, 2 files)
./Science/Climate/Lapse Rates/Lapse Rates.rtfd/TXT.rtf (2y 27w 3d ago, size: 17726 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Lapse Rates/Lapse Rates.rtfd/pastedGraphic.pdf (2y 27w 3d ago, size: 60363 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Natural Cycles (1y 17w 6d ago, 4 files)
./Science/Climate/Natural Cycles/-Notes (1y 17w 6d ago, 0 files)
./Science/Climate/Natural Cycles/-summary.html (2y 26w 6d ago, size: 157 bytes)

Plot from the southern Sea Surface Temperature modelling.
See the SST images archive in the images branch. A description of this project is forthcoming.

./Science/Climate/Natural Cycles/Natural Cycles.html (2y 25w 3d ago, size: 6850 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Natural Cycles/Natural Cycles.pdf (2y 27w 3d ago, size: 116959 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Paris (1y 17w 6d ago, 1 files)
./Science/Climate/Paris/Paris submission.pdf (3y 46w 6d ago, size: 131941 bytes)
./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay ( 30w 6d ago, 11 files)
./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay/-Notes (1y 13w 4d ago, 4 files)
./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay/-Notes/dai 170815-20171217-114349.html (1y 13w 5d ago, size: 688 bytes)
./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay/-Notes/dai 171103-20171217-125452.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 1334 bytes)
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./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay/-Notes/dai 171217-20171217-131651.html (1y 13w 5d ago, size: 895 bytes)
./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay/-comments.html (1y 13w 5d ago, size: 0 bytes)
./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay/-summary.html (1y 11w , size: 639 bytes)

The article Radiative Delay in Context challenges a core assumption of the contemporary climate science consensus, that the Greenhouse (or Radiative Delay) Effect is the sole mechanism by which the Earth's atmosphere raises the Earth's surface temperature above that which would exist without an atmosphere.

In it I show that the Radiative Delay heating of the atmosphere is negligible, and a well established alternative mechanism arising from atmospheric buffering over the diurnal temperature cycle is capable of producing the temperatures we experience.

The role of Carbon Dioxide is shown to be negligible.

./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelay170815.pdf (1y 31w 3d ago, size: 162457 bytes)
./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelay170815.xlsx (1y 31w 3d ago, size: 230485 bytes)
./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelayInContext170828.pdf (1y 29w 4d ago, size: 304598 bytes)
./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelayInContext180818.pdf ( 30w 6d ago, size: 244143 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Sea Surface Temperature (1y 17w 6d ago, 2 files)
./Science/Climate/Sea Surface Temperature/-Notes (1y 17w 6d ago, 0 files)
./Science/Climate/Sea Surface Temperature/-summary.html (2y 27w 3d ago, size: 109 bytes)

Forthcoming article: a technical description of the SST modelling discussed in the article Natural Cycles.

./Science/Climate/Sea temperatures (1y 13w 3d ago, 4 files)
./Science/Climate/Sea temperatures/SST - Cycles vs Linear.html (1y 13w 3d ago, size: 3895 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Sea temperatures/SST-cycle weights.html (4y 2w 6d ago, size: 2353 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Sea temperatures/Sea Surface Temperatures - 1.html (1y 13w 3d ago, size: 4108 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Sea temperatures/Sea Surface Temperatures - 2.html (1y 13w 3d ago, size: 4444 bytes)
./Science/DD-Academic Publications.html (1y 40w , size: 2611 bytes)
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./Science/Fusion (1y 17w 6d ago, 2 files)
./Science/Fusion/Fusion-FF.html (2y 25w 4d ago, size: 11163 bytes)

Fusion Energy: Fiasco or Finesse?

Dai Davies, January 2014

Science and technology have never been under greater pressure to come up with some new source of cheap, clean energy than they are today. Not surprisingly, then, we have a renewed interest in Einstein’s hypothesis, subsequently verified, that physical mass could be converted to energy – hence nuclear energy. 

The extreme nature of this process has become common knowledge. A large power station can use as little as a gram of matter per day. Also common knowledge is the fact that there are two quite different approaches to tapping this energy source: fission and fusion – fission being the splitting of large atomic nuclei and fusion the merging of two light nuclei. 

Fission has been producing reliable energy for many decades and has, when in competent hands, a relatively good track record of safety – relative, that is, to comparable industrial activities.  Would I live next to a fission plant? Well, not if I could help it, even though recent evidence suggests that low levels of radioactivity may be good for the health. But then I’m a self-indulgent, middle-class westerner with plenty of choices and a penchant for green open spaces. 

Half a century should have been long enough for the fission industry to establish credentials as cheap and clean. Has it? Costings of existing plant are uncertain because almost none of the waste has been permanently secured – a serious problem when we have no idea that ‘secure’ will mean a century, let alone a millennium, into the future. Complicating this is the need to re-process present wastes to produce fuel when stocks of uranium run low. Other costs, such as the diversion of fuel into weapons, are incalculable – particularly if nuclear energy is to become widely available. Rapid expansion of the industry also faces serious problems of skills and materials shortages.

One possible hope for expansion of the fission industry is the current development of small-scale, sealed reactors. These are planned as maintenance-free, trucking container sized units that can be sealed, delivered, buried then reclaimed thirty odd years later for refuelling. The small size decreases unit cost efficiency but this may be more than offset by mass production. With a little ingenuity and cost these could be made tamper-proof, or at least tamper-aware so that timely protective action can be taken. Another possibility is use of the thorium fuel cycle.

What then of fission’s Cinderella sister – fusion? The only seriously funded contender here is plasma fusion – an attempt to recreate the conditions of extreme temperatures and pressures found inside the sun in a magnetic bottle (or fiasco). For the last forty or fifty years researchers have been saying that success is forty or fifty years away. Plug those numbers into a risk formula and it will tell you there’s Buckley’s chance. A closer examination suggests that the situation might not be so bad. Over that period of time the goal-posts have shifted. In the 50s the goal of creating a stable plasma with a high enough temperature to observe some fusion events was an ambitious one and almost beyond speculation. To a speculation-weary mind, the next step to commercial power would have seemed relatively straight-forward. 

That initial goal has been largely achieved – but not simply or cheaply. If the problems that have been encountered along the way had been anticipated the effort might never have been undertaken. In the mean time the problem of ramping up to commercial power levels has escalated, or come into sharper focus, and the goal of cheap reliable power is still highly questionable. 

Should the efforts be continued? I think definitely, yes. Even discounting the possibility of cheap power, the knowledge that has been accumulated about a new form of matter has been meaningful, interesting and useful, which is more than can be said for the expensive international race for ever larger particle accelerators.

Are there other contenders for fusion technology? Here the issue becomes even more complex and controversial. Simply put, the goal of nuclear fusion is to get the nuclei of two hydrogen atoms to combine to form a helium nucleus which has a slightly lower mass than two hydrogen nuclei – the excess mass being released as energy. This reaction doesn’t proceed readily. There is a barrier to cross – a barrier that is both physical and psychological, and perhaps even ideological.

When Einstein showed that the energy of matter could only take certain specific values (was quantised) he opened a window into the world of the atom and below. By the mid 1920s mathematical equations had been constructed that could accurately predict the values of these energy levels and their stability. 

 These equations describe waves and vibrations but give no direct pointer to what, if anything, is actually waving or vibrating. The most obvious candidate comes from Einstein’s theory of relativity. It says about matter that it bends or distorts space and that it is directly interchangeable with energy. A small speculative jump gives us matter as bent space with the associated energy just that needed to do the bending. Quantum Mechanics (QM) suggests vibrations, so we end up with a sub-atomic particles such as our hydrogen nuclei being vibrations of space. QM also indicates that transitions happen when the vibrations are synchronised or resonant. The barrier to fusion can now be seen as a lack of resonance – the particles are ‘out of synch’.

Vibration and resonance are ubiquitous in nature. A simple examples are a pendulum or child’s swing. A series of small pushes can build up the energy of the swing if they are synchronised to the movement of the swing. Too much ‘excitation’ and the child is flung off the swing, so we quickly place a swimming pool in position to catch them and note the splash produced from the excess energy of the fall. Alternatively we can imagine two trapeze artists building up their swing until they can reach each other in the centre of the circus tent – but only if their swings are synchronised. A thin elastic band connecting the swings could help synchronise the swings – absorbing energy one moment then letting it out the next – acting as a catalyst. Eventually our trapeze artists will meet in mid air, clasp each other and be united. If they both let go of the swings they will fall together to the safety net below and the energy of the fall will be dissipated in vibrations of the net.

What our two hydrogen nuclei need, then, is something that will nudge or finesse them into synch then remove the excess energy so that it doesn’t break the pairing up again – the catalyst. Hot fusion relies on chance for synchronisation. In a hot, dense plasma particles collide often and some will be in synch. Excess energy is removed by the emission of another particle such as a photon of light. 

The big question, then, is any other approach possible? There are comparable QM transitions. In a laser (Light Amplification by the Stimulated Emission of Radiation) an excited atom in an intense light beam is coaxed into dropping to a lower energy level by the vibrations of the light to produce a new photon that adds to (amplifies) the beam.

In the 1950s it was predicted that the muon, a particle much like an electron but with over 200 times the mass, could act as a catalyst for fusion. This was soon verified experimentally. The catch was that muons are expensive to produce and, though they are not used up in the reactions, they have a short life span. The reaction does, however, provide a proof of concept because the reaction happens at temperatures much lower than necessary for plasma fusion.

The question then becomes: are there cheaper alternatives to muons? In metal crystals the metal atoms are arranged in regular arrays and some of the electrons are free to move about, which is what allows them to conduct electricity. Groups of electrons can synchronise and these clusters can, in QM, be seen as particles in their own right. These particles can potentially have the mass of millions of electrons.

Metals can also absorb hydrogen which forms regular arrays in between the metal atoms. In the 1980s, QM calculations suggested that these might form flat resonant sheets of matter within the crystal. Here adjacent hydrogen nuclei are already synchronised and the large synchronised sheet can potentially act as the catalyst. One metal, in particular, absorbs hydrogen readily: palladium. Now if we look beside the road we have followed we see a battered and bullet-holed sign saying ‘Cold Fusion Was Here’. Respectable, orthodox physicists quickly avert their eyes and cross themselves nervously repeating a few grave incantations: ‘Nuclear fusion in a test-tube? Impossible! It needs high temperatures. It must produce high energy photons or other particles. We’ve seen so in plasma fusion. That’s how it happens in the sun.’

For a couple of electro-chemist interlopers to suddenly appear centre stage in the Physics tent and put on a poorly rehearsed performance was too much to bear. They were jeered off the stage and pelted with the academic equivalent of rotten eggs. Overnight reviews condemned. Cautious reviewers procrastinated. The act went underground. In retrospect, pushing for large scale energy production – even test-tube scale – was probablty too ambitious. A more conventional approach would be to attempt to set up and observe single fusion events in an appropriate solid lattice and scale from there. Metals may not be the best place to start. There are plenty of regualar structures in nature that exhibit large-scale quantum resonance – even structures in the cells of our bodies. Carbon nanotubes provide a strong, regular structure with interesting electrical properties.

One intriguing possibility for this Lattice Catalysed Fusion is the direct transfer of energy to electrons in the lattice and, hence, the possibility of direct and efficient production of electrical energy. Quick results are unlikely but the potential benefits are too great to be ignored.

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./Science/ScienceAndSensibility.pdf (1y 39w 6d ago, size: 139818 bytes)
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./Science/Soils/Soils.pdf (2y 26w 3d ago, size: 144418 bytes)
./Society (1y 17w 6d ago, 8 files)
./Society/AmgalantReview.html (1y 17w 6d ago, size: 9919 bytes)
./Society/Politics (1y 17w 6d ago, 6 files)
./Society/Politics/-Notes (1y 11w , 0 files)
./Society/Politics/-comments.html (2y 27w 4d ago, size: 209 bytes)
./Society/Politics/-summary.html (2y 27w 5d ago, size: 601 bytes)

This is a personal view of the political nature of the CO2 scare from an environmentalist who has watched on in dismay at the extreme politicisation of the environment. I watched the takeover of the environment movement since the 1970s by the extreme left acting with motives that have nothing to do with reducing our environmental impact.
Moving forward we see the actions of the totalitarian left in the United Nations and associated NGOs forming the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and how this has perverted the already corrupted nexus between science and public policy.

./Society/Politics/ClimatePolitics.html (2y 25w 4d ago, size: 17656 bytes)
./Society/Politics/ClimatePolitics.pdf (2y 28w 1d ago, size: 115087 bytes)
./Society/Politics/Empathy and Autism.html (1y 17w 6d ago, size: 10315 bytes)
./Technology ( 38w 4d ago, 18 files)
./Technology/-Notes (1y 13w 5d ago, 0 files)
./Technology/-summary.html (1y 13w 4d ago, size: 791 bytes)

Untitled Page

Technology Archives

Most significant article: Personal Archives

Related articles: Knowledge Systems and Conflict,
Knowledge Futures (refers to deprecated WordMuller software)

More technical (Natural language Processing):
nlp-all.pdf, NLP-Parser.pdf, NLP-Inference.pdf

./Technology/ChitSets Intro.html (1y 11w , size: 6665 bytes)
./Technology/Knowledge Futures.html (1y 11w , size: 8365 bytes)
./Technology/Knowledge Systems and Conflict.html (1y 11w , size: 17910 bytes)
./Technology/LegacySoftware.html ( 38w 4d ago, size: 752 bytes)
./Technology/MatchingParam.pdf (5y 31w 3d ago, size: 65859 bytes)
./Technology/NLP-DataStructures.pdf (9y 5w 3d ago, size: 150699 bytes)
./Technology/NLP-Inference.pdf (9y 5w 3d ago, size: 195013 bytes)
./Technology/NLP-Parser.pdf (9y 5w 3d ago, size: 182984 bytes)
./Technology/Personal Archives.html (1y 11w , size: 24156 bytes)
./Technology/PersonalArchives.pdf ( 47w 5d ago, size: 141111 bytes)
./Technology/ (6y 11w 2d ago, size: 351234 bytes)
./Technology/SLabView Intro.html (1y 14w 4d ago, size: 6822 bytes)
./Technology/SpeechDecisionTree.pdf (5y 31w 3d ago, size: 25855 bytes)
./Technology/TWM-Performance-Usability.pdf (5y 31w 2d ago, size: 307247 bytes)
./Technology/Time in ASR.pdf (5y 31w 2d ago, size: 310440 bytes)
./Technology/nlp-all.pdf (5y 31w 3d ago, size: 337083 bytes)