Brindabella Archives

Do not be led by others,
awaken your own mind,
amass your own experience,
and decide for yourself your own path.
The Atharva Veda

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Brindabella Archives Summary The Brindabella Archives are nonfiction writings on Science, Technology, and Society.

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Personal odds and ends from past sites.

./Dai/photos (1y 14w , 9 files)
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./Dai/photos/The Itch.html (1y 14w , size: 390 bytes)
./Dai/photos/Young Possom.html (1y 14w , size: 2079 bytes)
./OCM (1y 14w 5d ago, 6 files)
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Untitled Page The Open Climate Modeller (OCM) is an interactive Javascript visualisation package for exploring the Earth's surface-atmosphere energy dynamics.
Select the OCM.html file to run it now, or download the OCMdemo.zip file.
Unzip it then open in a local browser. Local use recommended for Javascript programmers only. Check code safety for yourself.

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./Science ( 48w 1d ago, 70 files)
./Science/Climate ( 27w 5d ago, 59 files)
./Science/Climate/Atmosphere (1y 18w 2d ago, 6 files)
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This article, Energy and Atmosphere, looks at the energy dynamics of the Earth's atmosphere. Since the role of radiative gasses has become a political issue that is undermining the stability of industrial economies and denying the many benefits of cheap and reliable energy to billions of people, the precise nature of the energy dynamics of our atmosphere has become a trillion dollar question.

It shows a new derivation for the adiabatic temperature lapse rate in the atmosphere.
It also points to a possible explanation for why the Earth's water thermostat cuts in so suddenly at 30 Cº.

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Climate – A Personal Perspective is an early overview article looking at things and events that have influenced my views on climate.

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./Science/Climate/Diurnal-Smoothing-Effect.pdf ( 27w 5d ago, size: 238052 bytes)
./Science/Climate/HallOfInfamy.pdf (2y 2d ago, size: 73439 bytes)
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./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2 (1y 18w 2d ago, 5 files)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/-Notes (1y 18w 2d ago, 0 files)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/-comments.html (2y 28w , size: 209 bytes)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/-summary.html (1y 14w , size: 1217 bytes)

 The IPCC and the Carbon Cycle
We are told by the IPCC that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are causing atmospheric CO2 levels to rise and that these are causing global warming. Of the two links in this chain of reasoning this article addresses the first.

I show that the IPCC view of the carbon cycle is fundamentally flawed in many ways, and is not supportable at any meaningful level of confidence. This is not esoteric science to be left to specialists or ‘great minds’. Any numerate person who cares to look and think can understand the insignificance of our total industrial era CO2 emissions at less than 1% of the carbon cycle and our annual emissions at just 5% of the air-sea fluxes.

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Plot from the southern Sea Surface Temperature modelling.
See the SST images archive in the images branch. A description of this project is forthcoming.

./Science/Climate/Natural Cycles/Natural Cycles.html (2y 25w 6d ago, size: 6850 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Natural Cycles/Natural Cycles.pdf (2y 27w 6d ago, size: 116959 bytes)
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./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay ( 31w 2d ago, 11 files)
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The article Radiative Delay in Context challenges a core assumption of the contemporary climate science consensus, that the Greenhouse (or Radiative Delay) Effect is the sole mechanism by which the Earth's atmosphere raises the Earth's surface temperature above that which would exist without an atmosphere.

In it I show that the Radiative Delay heating of the atmosphere is negligible, and a well established alternative mechanism arising from atmospheric buffering over the diurnal temperature cycle is capable of producing the temperatures we experience.

The role of Carbon Dioxide is shown to be negligible.

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./Science/Climate/Sea Surface Temperature (1y 18w 2d ago, 2 files)
./Science/Climate/Sea Surface Temperature/-Notes (1y 18w 2d ago, 0 files)
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Forthcoming article: a technical description of the SST modelling discussed in the article Natural Cycles.

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Sea Surface Temperatures
Dai Davies, January 2015


Status report, Jan 2015

This work is an extension of the model initially built in a spreadsheet as summarised in the Stage 1 report.

Requirements

There are three broad aims for this work:

1: Analysing the cyclic nature of the SST data (southern hemisphere sea surface temperatures) without any prior assumptions. The spreadsheet model was based on cycles from a solar radiance model. A de nouveau approach was required.

2: Developing an approach that optimised the model for extrapolation into the future. To achieve this the long period cycles must be accurately established. The bicentennial and millennial cycles are four and eight times the length of the SST data used. Conventional Fourier analysis requires a few whole cycles for accurate assessment so a an approach was taken that involved reconstructing the data from partial cycles.

3. The third aim was to look for phase shifts in the cycles that might reflect changes in ocean circulation over the sampled period – 1880 to 2014. This required an approach to visualisation of the phase of each cyclic components across the sample period.

Design

The model was reconstructed in a heavily hacked version of the SLabView speech visualisation package, now named CycleView, which is written in Java and is being developed in the Eclipse SDK. It is available for download on request now, and will be permanently available when it is relatively stable, cleaned up, and some minimal documentation written.

The initial approach was to do a Fourier analysis of the southern hemisphere SST data using the Goertzel DFT algorithm implemented in SLabView that was built for analysing short segments of speech. For short signals the DFT is sensitive to signals not starting and ending at zero. With speech I was able to minimise this by starting and ending a segment at the nearest zero crossing. The SST data doesn't allow this because of the presence of long period cycles – particularly the millennial cycle.

I abandoned the DFT and took the reconstructive approach. After messing about familiarising myself with the problem and testing code I settled on a two stage method. 

Stage 1: The starting point was to scan a single cycle through the 2-1000 year range, or sub-ranges, optimising its magnitude and phase as the scan progressed by searching for a minimum in the RMS residual between model and signal while varying the strength and phase of the cycle for each new value of the cycle period. 

Having found the strongest peak I extract that signal from the data and repeat the process with the new residual signal to locate the next strongest component. This process was repeated until all significant components were located.

Stage 2: Since the location and height of some peaks varied as other cycles were extracted, the next step was to extract all peaks and vary each in turn to minimise the residual signal. The current cycle set is summarised in the Cycle Contributions table.


Implementation


 

SST data (green), Model (red)
 


 

Millennial cycle
 






Cycle Contributions





Review

There are a few general points that can be made from the cycles table:
1: The strongest few cycles – 800, 200, 11, 60 years – account for two thirds of the variance between model and signal.  




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./Society/Politics/-summary.html (2y 28w 1d ago, size: 601 bytes)

This is a personal view of the political nature of the CO2 scare from an environmentalist who has watched on in dismay at the extreme politicisation of the environment. I watched the takeover of the environment movement since the 1970s by the extreme left acting with motives that have nothing to do with reducing our environmental impact.
Moving forward we see the actions of the totalitarian left in the United Nations and associated NGOs forming the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and how this has perverted the already corrupted nexus between science and public policy.

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./Technology ( 39w , 18 files)
./Technology/-Notes (1y 14w 1d ago, 0 files)
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Untitled Page

Technology Archives

Most significant article: Personal Archives

Related articles: Knowledge Systems and Conflict,
Knowledge Futures (refers to deprecated WordMuller software)

More technical (Natural language Processing):
nlp-all.pdf, NLP-Parser.pdf, NLP-Inference.pdf

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./Technology/Knowledge Futures.html (1y 11w 3d ago, size: 8365 bytes)
./Technology/Knowledge Systems and Conflict.html (1y 11w 3d ago, size: 17910 bytes)
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./Technology/NLP-DataStructures.pdf (9y 5w 6d ago, size: 150699 bytes)
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