Brindabella Archives

Do not be led by others,
awaken your own mind,
amass your own experience,
and decide for yourself your own path.
The Atharva Veda

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Brindabella Archives Summary The Brindabella Archives are nonfiction writings on Science, Technology, and Society.

./Comments (1y 8w 5d ago, 0 files)
./Current (1y 8w 5d ago, 0 files)
./Dai (1y 4w 2d ago, 13 files)
./Dai/-Notes (1y 8w 5d ago, 0 files)
./Dai/-comments.html (1y 8w 6d ago, size: 216 bytes)
./Dai/-summary.html (1y 4w 3d ago, size: 402 bytes)

Personal odds and ends from past sites.

./Dai/photos (1y 4w 3d ago, 9 files)
./Dai/photos/Black Snake.html (1y 4w 3d ago, size: 3954 bytes)
./Dai/photos/Digging Sticks.html (1y 4w 3d ago, size: 1382 bytes)
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./Dai/photos/Marsupial.html (1y 2w , size: 371 bytes)
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./Dai/photos/Sullivans Creek.html (1y 4w 3d ago, size: 1018 bytes)
./Dai/photos/The Itch.html (1y 4w 3d ago, size: 390 bytes)
./Dai/photos/Young Possom.html (1y 4w 3d ago, size: 2079 bytes)
./OCM (1y 5w 1d ago, 6 files)
./OCM/-summary.html (1y 4w 4d ago, size: 1059 bytes)

Untitled Page The Open Climate Modeller (OCM) is an interactive Javascript visualisation package for exploring the Earth's surface-atmosphere energy dynamics.
Select the OCM.html file to run it now, or download the OCMdemo.zip file.
Unzip it then open in a local browser. Local use recommended for Javascript programmers only. Check code safety for yourself.

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./OCM/OCMdemo.zip (1y 5w 2d ago, size: 158555 bytes)
./OCM/plots (1y 5w 1d ago, 2 files)
./OCM/plots/OCM-AirPlot-DsTLS.gif ( 25w 4d ago, size: 13337 bytes)
./OCM/plots/OCM-AirPlot-TSL.gif (1y 25w 2d ago, size: 9195 bytes)
./Science ( 38w 4d ago, 70 files)
./Science/Climate ( 18w 1d ago, 59 files)
./Science/Climate/Atmosphere (1y 8w 5d ago, 6 files)
./Science/Climate/Atmosphere/-Notes (1y 1w 6d ago, 0 files)
./Science/Climate/Atmosphere/-comments.html (2y 18w 3d ago, size: 312 bytes)
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This article, Energy and Atmosphere, looks at the energy dynamics of the Earth's atmosphere. Since the role of radiative gasses has become a political issue that is undermining the stability of industrial economies and denying the many benefits of cheap and reliable energy to billions of people, the precise nature of the energy dynamics of our atmosphere has become a trillion dollar question.

It shows a new derivation for the adiabatic temperature lapse rate in the atmosphere.
It also points to a possible explanation for why the Earth's water thermostat cuts in so suddenly at 30 Cº.

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./Science/Climate/Atmosphere/Energy&Atmosphere.pdf (2y 19w 3d ago, size: 529340 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Atmosphere/Lapse Rates.html (1y 2w , size: 11383 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Climate PP (1y 8w 5d ago, 5 files)
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./Science/Climate/Climate PP/-comments.html (2y 18w 3d ago, size: 306 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Climate PP/-summary.html (1y 2w , size: 141 bytes)

Climate – A Personal Perspective is an early overview article looking at things and events that have influenced my views on climate.

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./Science/Climate/Climate PP/Climate-PP.pdf (3y 41w 4d ago, size: 636413 bytes)
./Science/Climate/ClimateTruth&Certainty (1y 1w 6d ago, 2 files)
./Science/Climate/ClimateTruth&Certainty/Truth&Certainty.html (2y 16w 3d ago, size: 17007 bytes)
./Science/Climate/ClimateTruth&Certainty/TruthAndCertainty.pdf (2y 17w 2d ago, size: 131955 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Diurnal-Smoothing-Effect.pdf ( 18w 2d ago, size: 238052 bytes)
./Science/Climate/HallOfInfamy.pdf (1y 42w 5d ago, size: 73439 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Hall of Infamy.html (1y 42w 5d ago, size: 8786 bytes)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2 (1y 8w 5d ago, 5 files)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/-Notes (1y 8w 5d ago, 0 files)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/-comments.html (2y 18w 3d ago, size: 209 bytes)
./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/-summary.html (1y 4w 4d ago, size: 1217 bytes)

 The IPCC and the Carbon Cycle
We are told by the IPCC that CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are causing atmospheric CO2 levels to rise and that these are causing global warming. Of the two links in this chain of reasoning this article addresses the first.

I show that the IPCC view of the carbon cycle is fundamentally flawed in many ways, and is not supportable at any meaningful level of confidence. This is not esoteric science to be left to specialists or ‘great minds’. Any numerate person who cares to look and think can understand the insignificance of our total industrial era CO2 emissions at less than 1% of the carbon cycle and our annual emissions at just 5% of the air-sea fluxes.

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./Science/Climate/IPCC-CO2/IPCC-CO2.pdf (2y 16w 4d ago, size: 956187 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Lapse Rates (1y 8w 5d ago, 6 files)
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./Science/Climate/Lapse Rates/Lapse Rates.pdf (2y 18w 3d ago, size: 159006 bytes)
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./Science/Climate/Lapse Rates/Lapse Rates.rtfd/pastedGraphic.pdf (2y 18w 3d ago, size: 60363 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Natural Cycles (1y 8w 5d ago, 4 files)
./Science/Climate/Natural Cycles/-Notes (1y 8w 5d ago, 0 files)
./Science/Climate/Natural Cycles/-summary.html (2y 17w 6d ago, size: 157 bytes)

Plot from the southern Sea Surface Temperature modelling.
See the SST images archive in the images branch. A description of this project is forthcoming.

./Science/Climate/Natural Cycles/Natural Cycles.html (2y 16w 3d ago, size: 6850 bytes)

Natural Cycles

Dai Davies
brindabella.id.au
PERPETUAL DRAFT, 160901

Ocean currents have quasi-millennial timing of around 800 to 1000 years. Along with climate optima, they are probably best seen as geographical events that are influenced by weak external drivers that have a more regular cyclic pattern. What might those driver be? 

Some people find it difficult to consider that cycles in sunspot numbers and associated solar flares could have an impact on the Earth's climate, and that these, in turn, are driven by planetary motions. To the modern mind it smacks a bit too much of astrology, but bear with me. I'm not talking about meeting the love of your life on the bus tomorrow morning.

I find the idea intriguing, and not at all surprising if you consider that the solar system evolved from a swirling cloud of dust and gas into a highly synchronised cyclic system interconnected by gravitational and electric fields. The Golden Mean harmonies of planetary orbits – ‘the music of the spheres’ – were noted centuries ago. Modern measurements are showing more and more resonant structures in the motions of moons and even in the braided banded disks of the ringed planets. 

The motions of the planets shake the sun about by a distance greater than its diameter. The tidal forces the planets exert on the sun are small, but they have been acting through the full evolution of the solar system. This is likely to be influencing, if not dominating, the sun's roiling internal dynamics that produce sunspot and flare activity at the chaotic boundaries, which influences the Earth's magnetic field that deflects cosmic rays toward the poles forming the shimmering light curtains of the auroras, or, when it's weak, let more through. 

The huge showers of secondary particles that cosmic rays create in our atmosphere play a part in seeding clouds, which play a vital role in our water thermostat. Variations of a few percent in cloud cover are all that's needed to account for the small recent temperature changes.

My small excursion into climate modelling consisted of looking at published models of sunspot cycles and adjusting them to fit surface temperature data for the southern oceans – initially, a few hours work with a spreadsheet. The accuracy and simplicity of the result spurred me on to explore further. The model already fitted the data far better than the supercomputer models used by the IPCC.

The choice of this data set was not arbitrary. It can be taken as the rectal temperature of the Earth since there is more ocean down here, and southern climates and ocean currents are simpler than up north. 

Figure 4 shows the output of a model using 820, 193, 60 and 32 year cycles. Temperature data is the large black circles. The best fit is the blue line, with others showing 10% parameter variations as part of a sensitivity analysis not error bands. A significant 11 year cycle and other shorter ones help the fit but have been omitted in this model for simplicity sake, and the 32 year cycle is not critical. The mean error (root mean square, rmse) is 0.03ºC.

How various cycles found in sunspots and Earth systems data can be related to planetary orbits is discussed in detail by Nicola Scafetta (1) whose sunspot models inspired my effort. From my own analysis, temperatures follow a clear, but unstable, 11 year cycle – a Jovian year. The 60 year cycle can be clearly seen as 30 year steps in any representation of temperature for the last century. Longer cycles exist, but their periods are disputed. A 210 year Suess cycle is seen in radiocarbon and sunspot data. 


Figure 4 

For temperatures, we don't have long enough, or accurate enough, records to pin long cycles down precisely. The 820 (perhaps 800 to 950) year cycle in this model roughly matches the 800 year alignments of Jupiter and Saturn, when they act in concert. There's a limit to how well it can be determined from 135 years of data, but the fact that we're at its peak means the curvature is at a maximum, which helps. 

Missing from this model is a long term cooling trend as we slowly descend towards the next major ice age. Historical records suggest that the millennial peaks are weakening.

The value of a model is not how well it fits the data, but whether it can answer questions about our world. Is the rise in temperature over the last century part of an ongoing upward trend caused by increasing atmospheric CO2, or is it part of a natural cycle? 

The full model I'm using here exhaustively optimises the fit to data given the specified initial constraints – in the illustrated case, four cycles of unconstrained period. Replacing the millennial cycle with an upward sloping straight line that might represent the influence of rising CO2 levels, then letting the model relax to an optimum, reduces accuracy relative to the cycle. 

Can a combination of straight line and long cycle improve the fit? Optimising with both present, but fixing the straight line at increasing slopes for successive optimisations, provides a maximum slope for the line of about 0.3 Cº per century before it doubles the error and the data starts screaming for mercy. An upward turning line would be worse. The data demands a long term cycle in ocean temperatures. There is no significant role for CO2.

Copernicus offended sensibilities by suggesting that we were not the centre of the universe. The current turn of the Copernican revolution involves the recognition that we are a tiny part (0.001%) of the Earth's biosphere, and all our industrial activity has added just 1% to its carbon cycle.

The model has been extrapolated to show the last millennial peak, the Little Ice Age, and future trends. I was motivated by a desire to know what conditions might be like in the year 2200 – a time I escape to whenever I can – a time when we understand our planet and our solar system much better – when we confront the next turn of the Copernican revolution and start heading out across the vast expanse of our galaxy. 


References:

  1. Scafetta, N., 2010, Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

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./Science/Climate/Paris (1y 8w 5d ago, 1 files)
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./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay ( 21w 5d ago, 11 files)
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The article Radiative Delay in Context challenges a core assumption of the contemporary climate science consensus, that the Greenhouse (or Radiative Delay) Effect is the sole mechanism by which the Earth's atmosphere raises the Earth's surface temperature above that which would exist without an atmosphere.

In it I show that the Radiative Delay heating of the atmosphere is negligible, and a well established alternative mechanism arising from atmospheric buffering over the diurnal temperature cycle is capable of producing the temperatures we experience.

The role of Carbon Dioxide is shown to be negligible.

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./Science/Climate/RadiativeDelay/RadiativeDelayInContext180818.pdf ( 21w 6d ago, size: 244143 bytes)
./Science/Climate/Sea Surface Temperature (1y 8w 5d ago, 2 files)
./Science/Climate/Sea Surface Temperature/-Notes (1y 8w 5d ago, 0 files)
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Forthcoming article: a technical description of the SST modelling discussed in the article Natural Cycles.

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./Society (1y 8w 5d ago, 8 files)
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This is a personal view of the political nature of the CO2 scare from an environmentalist who has watched on in dismay at the extreme politicisation of the environment. I watched the takeover of the environment movement since the 1970s by the extreme left acting with motives that have nothing to do with reducing our environmental impact.
Moving forward we see the actions of the totalitarian left in the United Nations and associated NGOs forming the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and how this has perverted the already corrupted nexus between science and public policy.

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./Society/Politics/ClimatePolitics.pdf (2y 19w 1d ago, size: 115087 bytes)
./Society/Politics/Empathy and Autism.html (1y 8w 6d ago, size: 10315 bytes)
./Technology ( 29w 3d ago, 18 files)
./Technology/-Notes (1y 4w 4d ago, 0 files)
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Untitled Page

Technology Archives

Most significant article: Personal Archives

Related articles: Knowledge Systems and Conflict,
Knowledge Futures (refers to deprecated WordMuller software)

More technical (Natural language Processing):
nlp-all.pdf, NLP-Parser.pdf, NLP-Inference.pdf

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./Technology/Knowledge Futures.html (1y 2w , size: 8365 bytes)
./Technology/Knowledge Systems and Conflict.html (1y 2w , size: 17910 bytes)
./Technology/LegacySoftware.html ( 29w 4d ago, size: 752 bytes)
./Technology/MatchingParam.pdf (5y 22w 2d ago, size: 65859 bytes)
./Technology/NLP-DataStructures.pdf (8y 48w 3d ago, size: 150699 bytes)
./Technology/NLP-Inference.pdf (8y 48w 3d ago, size: 195013 bytes)
./Technology/NLP-Parser.pdf (8y 48w 3d ago, size: 182984 bytes)
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./Technology/PersonalArchives.pdf ( 38w 5d ago, size: 141111 bytes)
./Technology/SLabView.zip (6y 2w 1d ago, size: 351234 bytes)
./Technology/SLabView Intro.html (1y 5w 4d ago, size: 6822 bytes)
./Technology/SpeechDecisionTree.pdf (5y 22w 2d ago, size: 25855 bytes)
./Technology/TWM-Performance-Usability.pdf (5y 22w 1d ago, size: 307247 bytes)
./Technology/Time in ASR.pdf (5y 22w 1d ago, size: 310440 bytes)
./Technology/nlp-all.pdf (5y 22w 2d ago, size: 337083 bytes)