Modelling Southern Sea Surface Temperatures

Dai Davies, March 2015

Cycles vs Linear Component

Behaviour of individual model components as the model attempts to accommodate a linear component representing atmospheric CO2. In each run the linear component takes a slope representing one of: 0.0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8, 1.0 ˚C per century. Cycle periods are tn in the equation.

SST Model Equation

Residual error starts to rise more rapidly after a linear component of 0.4 C˚/century.